As the deadline looms for World Trade Organization (WTO) candidates to step forward, it appears there may be no challenger to the current Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s bid for a second term.
However, despite her historic leadership and broad support among member nations, Okonjo-Iweala’s reappointment is not guaranteed, especially with the potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House—a development that could reignite past tensions with the WTO.
Okonjo-Iweala, who was Nigeria’s former finance minister, became the first woman and first African to lead the WTO. Her initial term was marked by significant achievements, but she recently announced her intent to pursue a second term to complete what she describes as “unfinished business” within the global trade body.
This includes tackling persistent issues in the WTO’s operational structure, addressing trade disputes, and securing progress in critical areas like agriculture and fisheries. Her commitment to advancing the interests of developing countries has garnered her considerable support among WTO members, especially those representing emerging economies.
Despite the absence of any official challengers, some Geneva-based delegates have expressed reservations about her reappointment, warning that it isn’t a “fait accompli.” Should Trump regain the U.S. presidency, the dynamics within the WTO could shift dramatically.
Trump’s former trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, once referred to Okonjo-Iweala as “China’s ally in Geneva,” critiquing her support for developing countries—a status that China also claims within the WTO. Such rhetoric underscores the heightened tensions around U.S.-China relations and suggests that Okonjo-Iweala’s second term could be complicated by a resurgence of protectionist policies from the United States.
The potential return of Trump to the White House has sparked speculation about a renewed adversarial stance from the U.S. toward the WTO. In 2020, Trump’s administration actively opposed Okonjo-Iweala’s initial appointment, with her confirmation only succeeding once President Joe Biden came into office.
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Observers suggest that another Trump term might see the U.S. imposing sweeping tariffs and circumventing WTO procedures. Trump has already proposed a 10% blanket tariff on imports, with even higher rates for certain countries, such as China. This move would challenge the WTO’s foundational principles of non-discriminatory trade practices and could lead to a spike in global trade tensions.
During his first administration from 2017 to 2021, Trump crippled the WTO’s appellate body by blocking judicial appointments, effectively paralyzing the organization’s dispute resolution mechanism—a state of affairs that has persisted.
Analysts like Alan Yanovich, a partner at the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, foresee a likely decline in U.S. engagement with the WTO if Trump returns to power. He notes that many within Trump’s potential administration either see the WTO as lacking value or are outright hostile to its operations.
A push toward increased tariffs could create significant friction within the global trade system, eroding trust and cooperation among member nations.
Carlos Vejar, a former Mexican trade negotiator, adds that a Trump-led administration would likely sidestep the WTO entirely, focusing instead on domestic production and protectionist measures. Trump’s agenda, which includes a proposal to relocate manufacturing back to the U.S., is part of a broader strategy aimed at shielding sensitive industries from foreign competition.
Vejar argues that if this approach becomes U.S. policy, the WTO will find itself increasingly sidelined, reducing its ability to mediate and enforce global trade rules effectively.
The WTO’s recent ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi yielded only modest outcomes, falling short of the major breakthroughs many members had hoped for. Disputes over agriculture, fisheries, and other longstanding issues persist, reflecting the challenges of reaching consensus within the WTO’s 166-member body.
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Consensus-based decision-making has been both a cornerstone and a constraint of the organization, often stalling negotiations and making global trade agreements rare.
In an interview with Reuters, Okonjo-Iweala acknowledged the potential difficulties if Trump were to return to office. She stated that the proposed blanket tariffs could create a “lose-lose” situation for global trade, disrupting the very foundations of the international trading system. However, she emphasized her focus on what she can control within the WTO rather than the possible political dynamics outside of it.
If Okonjo-Iweala secures a second term, her leadership will be pivotal as the WTO navigates an increasingly polarized global trade landscape. Her mission to drive structural reforms, strengthen trade cooperation, and ensure that the WTO remains relevant in an era of shifting alliances will be challenging.
With her vision and experience, however, Okonjo-Iweala remains a symbol of resilience for the WTO, embodying the potential for progress even in turbulent times. Whether her reappointment will proceed smoothly or encounter obstacles depends largely on the political landscape, which remains as unpredictable as ever.