Trump’s Potential Return and Trade Tensions Loom Over COP29 Climate Summit in Baku

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COP29 Begins with Urgent Calls for Climate Finance Amid Global Tensions

The 29th annual U.N. Climate Summit, COP29, officially kicked off on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan, setting the stage for intense negotiations on climate finance, trade disputes, and global commitments to tackling climate change.

The event, which comes after a year of unprecedented weather disasters, has emboldened developing countries, particularly those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, to press for substantial financial support from wealthier nations.

One of the most significant topics on the COP29 agenda is the much-needed climate finance deal. Developing countries are hoping to secure up to $1 trillion annually in climate-related funding, far surpassing the previous target of $100 billion, Reuters.

This funding would be used to help these nations mitigate and adapt to climate change, providing much-needed support for their populations facing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and shifting agricultural patterns.

However, the summit comes at a time when many global priorities are competing for attention. Ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, economic challenges, and geopolitical tensions, particularly with the potential re-election of Donald Trump, a noted climate change skeptic, as president of the United States, have cast a shadow over discussions.

Trump’s previous stance of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and his general skepticism about climate science have fueled concerns about future U.S. engagement in global climate cooperation.

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Azerbaijan, which is hosting the summit, finds itself at the crossroads of energy transition and climate action. Despite being home to the world’s first oil wells and continuing to rely heavily on oil and gas revenues—accounting for 35% of its economy in 2023—Azerbaijan has pledged to transition away from fossil fuels in line with global climate goals.

The government has acknowledged that these revenues will decline further in the coming years, with forecasts suggesting a reduction to just 22% by 2028.

In his opening remarks, Azerbaijan’s COP29 president, Mukhtar Babayev, warned that the world was on a “road to ruin” unless decisive action is taken. He framed the summit as a “moment of truth” for the world’s climate commitments, urging countries to act swiftly. “Azerbaijan can build the bridge, but you all need to walk across it. In fact, we need to start running,” he said, calling for urgent and decisive climate action.

Before the summit could even begin, trade concerns were already front and center, with China introducing a proposal to address global trade disputes, particularly with the European Union.

The Chinese government, representing the BASIC group of countries (Brazil, India, South Africa, and China), called for the inclusion of trade-related issues in the climate talks. Specifically, China raised concerns about the EU’s planned carbon border tariffs, which are set to go into effect in 2026, Reuters.

These tariffs, which impose additional charges on imported goods based on their carbon emissions, are seen by China and other developing nations as trade barriers that could hamper global cooperation on climate change.

The push from China highlighted the complex intersection of climate policy and international trade. With tensions escalating over trade tariffs, particularly with the U.S. under Trump’s potential return to office, global climate talks are likely to be complicated by competing economic interests.

Trump’s previous statements on imposing tariffs on foreign goods, including a proposed 20% tariff on all foreign goods and 60% on Chinese imports, have raised alarms about the future of global climate cooperation, especially with countries like China and oil-rich Gulf nations.

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Li Shuo, Director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, remarked that China’s request was a sign of the country flexing its influence in the wake of the shifting global political landscape.

He pointed out that Trump’s election would likely signal a disengagement from the U.S. in terms of international climate cooperation, making it even more critical for countries like China and the EU to engage in dialogue and resolve trade and climate disputes.

Despite the complexities, the European Union and U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration have continued to press for a more inclusive approach to climate finance, urging countries like China and major oil-producing Gulf states to contribute to the global climate finance pool.

There is growing pressure on these nations, especially given their economic clout, to step up and play a larger role in financing climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Shuo emphasized that any meaningful discussion on climate finance must include a resolution of the trade issues between major players like China and the EU. He said, “If the EU wants to talk about climate finance with China, part of the conversation should be how to resolve our differences on trade and your tariffs.”

This underscores the complexity of the COP29 talks, where economic interests, trade disputes, and climate goals are all vying for attention.

As COP29 progresses, it is clear that the stakes are high. Developing nations are increasingly vocal in their demand for more substantial financial commitments to combat climate change, particularly as the world faces mounting climate disasters. At the same time, global trade disputes and the shifting political landscape, particularly in the U.S., threaten to complicate these discussions.

Azerbaijan’s role as host provides an interesting backdrop, as the country navigates its own energy transition while also advocating for global climate action. With the world’s climate goals hanging in the balance, the coming days will be critical in determining whether COP29 can deliver the necessary financial commitments and resolve the trade and political tensions that are slowing progress.

As countries prepare to negotiate on finance, trade, and policy, one thing is certain: the time for action is now. The world is watching to see if COP29 can set the stage for a truly global, collaborative effort to address climate change—before it is too late.

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