Ireland’s low-tax business model, which has been instrumental in attracting U.S. multinationals for decades, may be facing unprecedented challenges under a second Donald Trump presidency.
Trump’s campaign promises included lowering U.S. corporate taxes to levels comparable to those in Ireland and creating incentives for U.S.-based industries to bring production—and potentially valuable intellectual property (IP)—back to American soil.
These measures could significantly impact Ireland’s economic stability, which has grown heavily reliant on foreign corporate investments, particularly from American companies, Reuters.
At the core of Ireland’s economic strategy has been its competitive tax environment, drawing global corporations with attractive rates and IP incentives. Today, approximately 11% of Ireland’s workforce is employed by foreign multinationals, the majority of which are U.S.-owned.
This foreign investment has bolstered Ireland’s tax revenue, funding public services and positioning Ireland as one of the healthiest economies in Europe. Three U.S. companies alone account for nearly one in every eight euros collected in taxes in Ireland, and a nearly seven-fold increase in corporate tax revenue over the last decade has transformed the country’s fiscal landscape.
Since 2014, corporate tax receipts in Ireland have surged from €4.6 billion to an estimated €30 billion this year—a windfall that has supported consecutive budget surpluses, increased spending, tax cuts, and even the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund.
However, this prosperity hinges on the continued presence of multinationals. Should Trump’s policies succeed in bringing significant corporate profits and intellectual property back to the U.S., the stability of Ireland’s public finances could be at serious risk.
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For Ireland, the central concern lies in the potential shift of highly valuable IP assets out of the country. As Aidan Regan, professor of political economy at University College Dublin, notes, “If just one of those multinationals decides they’re going to locate the IP back in the U.S., that could effectively rupture the health budget in Ireland.”
Regan describes Trump’s election as an “existential threat” to Ireland’s financial health, given the U.S. president’s intent to incentivize American companies to bring profits back home, where they would be taxed under U.S. jurisdiction rather than in Ireland.
Ireland’s heavy dependence on corporate tax income is a double-edged sword. While it has enabled the country to enjoy a financial surplus, the reliance on a few major players makes Ireland’s economy vulnerable, Reuters.
Analysts have warned that without corporate tax income from these multinationals, Ireland would face a budget deficit close to 2% of national income next year, a stark contrast to the projected 2.9% surplus. Eddie Casey, the chief economist at Ireland’s fiscal watchdog, emphasized this dependency, noting that “three U.S. companies account for 43% of all corporate tax receipts.”
Trump’s tax proposals, which have been estimated to add between $3.6 trillion and $6.6 trillion to U.S. federal deficits over a decade, could come with budgetary limitations.
However, should they be implemented, Ireland’s fiscal strategy may face growing risks. Past attempts by the U.S. to reform corporate taxes, particularly under Trump’s first presidency from 2017 to 2021, had an impact on global business models but ultimately did not destabilize Ireland’s position. Nevertheless, many economists and policymakers are more cautious this time around.
While Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister has downplayed the potential risks, stating that Trump is not the first U.S. president to seek the repatriation of American companies, the stakes are arguably higher now. Goodbody Stockbroker chief economist Dermot O’Leary recently advised clients that while not all of Trump’s policies may be realized, some carry “real dangers for Ireland.”
The coming months will be crucial as U.S. policymakers weigh the feasibility and implications of Trump’s proposed economic measures. Ireland may be counting on its unique advantages—such as an established multinational presence and favorable regulatory environment—to retain these companies and their IP.
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However, UCD’s Regan remains cautious, pointing out that “Trump’s been very clear he wants to put the U.S. first. I cannot foresee his team not having Ireland in their view for the type of stuff they want to do.”
Ultimately, Ireland’s low-tax model may need to evolve if it is to continue attracting and retaining foreign investment in the face of changing global policies. As other countries, including the U.S., explore ways to bring tax revenues and jobs back within their borders, Ireland will need to adapt its economic strategies to maintain its status as an attractive destination for multinationals.