Europe’s Growing Anxiety Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election
As the U.S. approaches one of its most consequential elections, European nations are watching with growing concern. The stakes couldn’t be higher, as the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris represents two radically different approaches to foreign policy, trade, and global alliances. For Europe, the outcome of this election could reshape the continent’s geopolitical landscape for years to come.
Donald Trump, who is vying for a return to the White House, has already made it clear that he plans to upend the current world order if victorious. One of his most alarming threats, from a European perspective, is his willingness to reconsider the United States’ commitment to NATO.
Trump has previously called NATO “obsolete” and suggested that European countries should pay more for their own defense. If he were to withdraw or significantly reduce U.S. involvement in the alliance, Europe would be left vulnerable to growing threats from Russia and other adversarial forces.
Additionally, Trump has expressed an interest in cutting a rapid deal with Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. While a quick resolution may seem appealing to war-weary populations, many European leaders worry that any deal made under Trump’s leadership could come at a heavy cost to Ukraine’s sovereignty. Such an agreement could embolden Russia and other authoritarian regimes, sending shockwaves through Europe’s eastern borders.
Trump’s foreign policy vision also extends to trade, where he has hinted at the possibility of imposing further tariffs on European goods. His previous tariffs on steel and aluminum strained relationships with key European allies, and many worry that additional tariffs would spark a transatlantic trade war. European officials have already called Trump’s tariffs a “hidden sales tax,” one that disproportionately hurts both European and American consumers and businesses.
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On the other hand, Kamala Harris offers a stark contrast. Having served as Vice President under the Biden administration, she has been a vocal supporter of NATO and Europe’s security framework.
Harris understands the importance of strengthening alliances rather than fracturing them, and she has consistently advocated for a unified approach to global challenges, whether they involve defense, trade, or climate change. European officials are far more comfortable with her approach, as it promises stability and predictability—two things sorely needed in a time of economic and political uncertainty.
Harris has also criticized Trump’s tariff policies, arguing that they harm the very people they’re intended to help. She has called for rebuilding transatlantic trade relations and removing barriers that have hampered economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic. This vision aligns more closely with Europe’s goals of open markets and collaborative economic partnerships.
But even with Harris, Europe is not without its concerns. Many European nations are still reeling from the perception that the U.S. is an unreliable partner, particularly after Trump’s presidency. There is an ongoing debate about how Europe should navigate its own defense and security, with some advocating for greater independence from the U.S. Regardless of who wins the election, this introspection is likely to continue as Europe seeks to ensure its own security in an increasingly uncertain world.
As the election approaches, European leaders find themselves in a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they hope for a victory by Harris, who offers a more traditional, alliance-focused approach.
On the other, they are preparing for the possibility of another Trump presidency, which could bring drastic changes to Europe’s security, trade, and diplomatic relations. One thing is clear—Europe is bracing for impact, and the outcome of this election will be felt far beyond the borders of the United States.
For most European officials, the preference is clear: a more predictable and cooperative Democratic leader is far more appealing than the prospect of navigating the unpredictable waters of a second Trump presidency. However, with the U.S. electorate deeply divided, Europe must be prepared for any outcome in this high-stakes election. The future of transatlantic relations hangs in the balance, and the world is watching closely.
As the U.S. presidential election looms, Europe faces significant uncertainties, especially regarding NATO, Ukraine, and trade relations. Donald Trump has rattled European allies by suggesting he would let Russia “do whatever the hell” it wants with NATO members not meeting defense spending targets.
Though NATO diplomats downplay the risk of Washington pulling out, Trump’s past skepticism of the alliance remains unsettling. On the other hand, Kamala Harris, like Joe Biden, pledges strong support for NATO, though pressure on Europe to increase defense spending is expected regardless of who wins.
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Ukraine is another pressing concern. While Trump has cast doubt on continued U.S. support for Kyiv and suggested he could broker a deal with Vladimir Putin, European leaders worry that a Trump presidency might undermine Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Although Harris is committed to backing Ukraine, diplomats fear that as the war drags on, calls for a resolution will intensify.
Trade tensions also weigh heavily on Europe. The European Union, better prepared for another potential Trump administration, is bracing for renewed tariff battles, particularly over steel and aluminum. While Harris would likely continue Biden’s diplomatic approach, Trump could take a more confrontational stance, forcing the EU to retaliate with its own trade measures.
As Europe nervously watches the U.S. election, its leaders know that the outcome will shape the future of transatlantic relations, with significant consequences for security and trade.